Monday, June 6, 2011

What is going on In the Middle East?

My background as an intelligence officer is causing me to shudder at what I see now happening in the Middle East especially with respect to Israel. The news and the actions of the US also cause me to wonder: What is the US going to do when things blow up? I hope my fear is misplaced but given the large number of disparate signals I believe my pessimism is warranted.

I recently became aware of the runaway sales of Mein Kampf in Turkey, a country until recently considered an Israeli ally. Why Mein Kampf, an evil polemic based on racial insanity and considered by most of the civilized world to be pure evil. Does it have to do with the rise of the Islamist’s in Turkey?

Recent statements by the spiritual leader of the Muslim Brotherhood cause me to wonder whether the prevailing wisdom of the Western media concerning the peacefulness of the Brotherhood in Egypt has any validity at all. The founders of the Brotherhood surely were extremely ant-Jewish and for years were closely aligned with Nazi Germany.

The new association of Hamas with the Palestinians has got to be of major concern. In its charter Hamas calls for the total destruction of the Jews and this is an organization we expect to negotiate a peace treaty with?

The new larger Flotilla being organized on a worldwide basis to bring so called relief to Gaza is totally disingenuous. The Raffia border between Egypt and Gaza is now open and in addition Israel has removed 90% of the restrictions of materials going into Gaza. The only purpose of the Flotilla is to cause another international incident attempting to make Israel look like a thuggish nation. Israel’s mistake the last time was to assume that the flotilla was manned by peaceful protesters and it may over react this time to prevent another incident of mayhem.

Interestingly the radical left on a worldwide basis are participating in the Flotilla. The old US Weathermen Bernadette Dorn and her husband Bill Aires will be participating as well as most of the usual radical leftist organizations in the Us and Canada. When their own members questioned the alliance with radical Islamist groups they were told not to worry this was simply a temporary alliance to achieve a greater goal. While this may not make sense to us; consider the rallying cry of the Islamist’s;” Down with both the Little Satan and the Big Satan”. By allying with the Islamists they show their international solidarity and hatred of the US. You also might want to consider that our President had his introduction to his run for the Senate at Bill and Bernadette’s house, but we are told he of course does not subscribe to their beliefs.

Anyone who thinks this President is not influenced by the radical left has to explain to me why until his retirement the most frequent visitor to the White House was Andy Stern the former longtime Communist President of the SEIU (Service Employees International Union). That honor now goes to Richard Trumka the avowed Socialist and President of the AFL-CIO. You will of course not get that news listening to NBC because they do not believe it is noteworthy.

Has anyone wondered what the effect of internal political dissention in Syria and Iran is going to have with respect to Israel? What do countries do to unite their citizens when internal strife occurs? The solution is to go to war with their neighbors which almost always results in solidification of national fervor in favor of the war.

O Bama’s recent actions with respect to Israel are going to make it difficult to rally the support of our Western allies for a veto in the UN when the Palestinians attempt to unilaterally declare their right to statehood, at the UN in September. I can’t imagine the US abstaining but given some of O Bama’s recent actions I don’t think that can be ruled out.

During the recent protest on Israel’s borders with respect to the anniversary of the Israel’s formation; the Arab protesters attempted to storm the fence. Watching it I thought what if they were to do this and martyr themselves on a large scale basis; what effect would this have in the Arab world and in the Western world. I suspect it would be a powerful tactic which might incite a number of countries in the Arab world to jointly consider war with Israel.

 I wrote this on Sunday morning and on of course on Monday morning I found out approx. 20 Syrians were killed assaulting the fence on the Golan Heights. This of course did not surprise me but simply was another confirmation of reasons for my concern
The first response I heard to my suggestion is it was absurd because Israel has nuclear weapons but in the real world nuclear weapons cannot be used unless a country is imminent danger of being destroyed. Unfortunately by then it may be too late.

Any one of these considerations is not enough to generate a warning signal but together they scare the hell out of me. In the intelligence world most information is fuzzy and rarely is there ever a clear signal forecasting a likely future event. That is why events like 9/11 occur and subsequent investigations reveal that we simply failed to put the pieces together.



The best scenario I can think of is this fall turns out to be nasty, but Israel ducks a major event. The worst scenario is the turmoil leads to a war with Israel’s neighbors and the US and our Western allies do nothing to prevent it. Given the turmoil in the Arab world with the so called Arab Spring; things could really turn ugly and the problems will not be isolated. That of course was the fondest hope of Osama Ben Laden.